On March 31, 2022, according to the planting intention report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture, the planting area of soybeans in the United States is expected to reach a record 90.95 million acres in 2022, higher than the 88 million acres predicted by the Outlook Forum and the 88.7 million acres expected by the market. The planting area of soybeans in the United States in 2021 is 87.2 million acres. Among the 29 major soybean producing states, the area of 24 states increased or remained unchanged year-on-year, and only 5 states are expected to decrease slightly year-on-year. This may be the third time in history that soybean planting area exceeds corn.
On March 31, the USDA released a quarterly inventory report. As of March 1, 2021, the inventory of Old Soybean in the United States was 1.931 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 1.902 billion bushels and 1.562 billion bushels in the same period of last year. Among them, the farm inventory was 750 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of 26%; Off farm inventories were 1181 million bushels, an increase of 22%.
The planting intention report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture shows that the sown area of soybeans in the United States in 2022 is much higher than the market expectation and hit a record high. The main reason is that the output of soybeans in South America is reduced due to drought, the global soybean supply is tight and the soybean price is high; Although the price ratio of soybean to corn is lower than that of the whole year, due to the sharp rise in the prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizer, the rising cost has a greater impact on corn, making farmers more inclined to plant soybeans. As the export and sales progress of us soybeans this year was slower than that of last year, the quarterly inventory of us soybeans increased year-on-year and higher than market expectations. On the whole, both reports are bad for the US bean market.
On March 31, the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower because the USDA’s estimated soybean planting area data far exceeded market expectations. As of the closing, the soybean futures price fell by 27-49.75 cents / bushel, of which the May futures price fell by 45.75 cents to close at 1618.25 cents / bushel; July futures closed down 44.50 cents to close at 1598 cents / bushel; November futures closed 49.75 cents lower at 1420.50 cents / bushel.
On March 31, the main 2209 contract of soybean meal of Dachang exchange closed slightly up 0.52% to 4038 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 43% protein soybean meal in coastal areas was 4520 ~ 4880 yuan / ton, down 40 ~ 80 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The main 2209 contract of rapeseed meal of Zheng Shangsuo rose slightly by 0.44% to 3848 yuan / ton, and the ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 4060 ~ 4140 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous day.
This week, the price decline of domestic soybean meal was greater than that of rapeseed meal, and the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal futures continued to narrow. On March 31, the price difference of 2005 contract soybean and rapeseed meal was 83 yuan / ton, which was 72 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last week; The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal under the main 2209 contract is 155 yuan / ton, which is 111 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last week, 277 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last month, and 364 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last year; The spot price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal in coastal areas is 450 ~ 490 yuan / ton, which is 60 ~ 390 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last week.
Source: National Grain and Oil Information Center
Post time: Apr-08-2022