On April 8, the USDA released the April supply and demand report. It is estimated that the sown area of soybeans in the United States in 2021 / 22 will be 87.2 million acres (86.3 million acres of harvested area), the unit yield will be 51.4 PU / acre and the output will be 4.435 billion Pu (121 million tons), which are the same as the predicted value of last month and a record high; The crushing capacity was 2.215 billion Pu (60.28 million tons), which was the same as the predicted value of last month; The export volume was 2.115 billion Pu (57.56 million tons), 25 million Pu higher than the forecast value of the previous month; The ending inventory was 260 million Pu (7.07 million tons), down 25 million Pu from the previous month, slightly higher than the 254 million Pu expected by the market.
USDA estimates that the initial inventory of Brazilian soybeans in 2021 / 22 is 29.4 million tons and the output is 125 million tons, which is 2 million tons lower than the forecast value of the previous month and 139.5 million tons lower than that of the previous year; The crushing capacity was 47.25 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons over the previous month, an increase of 570000 tons over the previous year; The export volume was 82.75 million tons, down 2.75 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 1.1 million tons over the previous year; The ending inventory was 21.61 million tons, an increase of 610000 tons over the previous month, but a decrease of 8.6 million tons over the previous year.
USDA estimates that the initial inventory of soybean in Argentina in 2021 / 22 is 25.06 million tons, and the soybean output is 43.5 million tons, lower than 46.2 million tons in the previous year; The import volume was 2.2 million tons, 700000 tons lower than the forecast value of the previous month and 2.62 million tons lower than that of the previous year; The crushing capacity was 40 million tons, a decrease of 160000 tons over the previous year; The export volume was 2.75 million tons, 2.45 million tons less than that of the previous year; The ending inventory was 20.8 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons over the previous month and a decrease of 4.62 million tons over the previous year.
USDA predicts that the global soybean output in 2021 / 22 will be 351 million tons, lower than the 354 million tons predicted last month, a decrease of 17.04 million tons over the previous year; The global soybean demand was 362 million tons, lower than the 364 million tons predicted last month, a slight decrease of 500000 tons over the previous year, the first decline since 2003 / 04. Due to the decline of soybean production, the global soybean ending inventory was 89.58 million tons, slightly lower than the forecast of 89.96 million tons last month and 13.15 million tons lower than that of the previous year.
USDA’s supply and demand report in April raised the US soybean export volume in 2021 / 22, and the ending inventory decreased, but the decline was slightly lower than the market expectation. Affected by La Nina weather, the dry weather led to the reduction of soybean production in South American countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, and the output forecast continued to decline. Although the global soybean consumption demand is sluggish due to factors such as the epidemic and high soybean prices, the decline of soybean output is greater, the ending inventory is lower, and the pattern of soybean supply and demand is tighter. The rise in the price of soybeans is in line with the expectations of this report, and the price of soybeans is basically supported by this report. At present, the sowing of American soybeans in the new season is about to begin, and the weather and sowing area in the later stage will dominate the price trend of American soybeans.
At present, the soybean harvest in Brazil is coming to an end, and the soybean harvest progress is expected to exceed 80%. The meteorological model shows that this week’s rainfall is mainly distributed in the southern production areas of Brazil where the soybean harvesting work is not finished. Among them, Parana, San Catalina and the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul have relatively concentrated rainfall, and excessive rainfall is not conducive to soybean harvesting.
In April, the soybean harvest in Argentina gradually started. Since mid and late February, the rainfall in the production area has increased and the growth condition of soybean has improved. However, due to the continuous dry weather during the sowing period, the overall growth condition of soybean is general, and the recent rainfall is only to prevent the further decline of yield. The meteorological model shows that the main soybean producing areas in Argentina have rainfall coverage this week, but the rainfall is small.
Last week, the price of us beans stopped falling and rebounded, the discount quotation for soybean export fell, and the cost of soybean import rose. The monitoring shows that the CNF quotation of Meiwan soybean in October is 696 US dollars / ton, and the premium quotation is 400 US cents / bushel for the CBOT contract in November, which is equivalent to the duty paid price of 5075 yuan / ton (3% import tariff and 9% value-added tax), with a weekly increase of 120 yuan / ton; The CNF price of Brazilian soybeans in May is 739 US dollars / ton, and the premium price is 322 US cents / bushel compared with the CBOT contract in May, which is equivalent to the duty paid price at the port of 5375 yuan / ton, an increase of 110 yuan / ton on a weekly basis.
With the increase of soybean arrival in Hong Kong, the phenomenon of soybean shortage in domestic oil plants has eased, and the soybean crushing capacity has stopped falling and turned up. The monitoring showed that the domestic soybean crushing volume last week was 1.22 million tons, which basically met the market expectations, an increase of 150000 tons over the previous week, a year-on-year decrease of 130000 tons, and a decrease of 220000 tons over the same period in recent three years. In April, Brazilian soybeans were concentrated in Hong Kong. The policy imported soybeans continued to be put in, and the soybean supply increased. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will quickly rise to about 1.5 million tons this week.
Source: National Grain and Oil Information Center
Post time: Apr-15-2022