Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its August Major Crop Outlook report, showing that the 2022/23 Canadian canola export forecast was raised to 9.2 million tons, 200,000 tons higher than the previous month’s estimate and a 78.6% jump from the 2021/22 estimate of 5.15 million tons. The canola production forecast was left unchanged this month at 18.4 million tons, up 46.1 percent from 12.595 million tons in 2021/22.
The report said a sharp increase in rapeseed yields will offset the impact of a decline in sown area. Rapeseed yields are expected to be 2.14 tons per hectare, up 52.9% from the previous year when yields were affected by bad weather at 1.4 tons per hectare. The rapeseed sown area is expected to be 8.667 million hectares, unchanged from last month’s forecast and 4.7% lower than the previous year’s 9.097 million hectares; the harvested area is expected to be 8.599 million hectares, 4.5% lower than the previous year’s 9.002 million hectares.
Domestic use in 2022/23 is 9.65 million tons, up 200,000 tons from last month’s revision and 13.3% higher than the revised downward use of 8.517 million tons in 2021/22 (down 400,000 tons from last month’s revision).
Ending stocks for 2022/23 are expected to be 450,000 tons, unchanged from last month’s estimate and 43.8% lower than the revised-up 2021/22 stocks of 800,000 tons (from last month’s estimate of 400,000 tons).
The upward revision of 2021/22 rapeseed ending stocks is due to a downward revision of domestic use by 400,000 tons to 8.517 million tons.
The rapeseed stock-to-use ratio for 2022/23 is 4.7%, compared to 9.4% for 2021/22.
Source: BoE Guru
Post time: Sep-01-2022